Skip to main content

Enhancing FMCG Strategic Planning with Data-Driven Forecasting

Client Background: 

Our client, a prominent Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) company operating across various product categories, sought to develop a comprehensive 3-year strategic business plan. They faced the challenge of accurately forecasting the volume of products in their diverse portfolio, with an emphasis on addressing high seasonality inherent to their offerings. Furthermore, they required monthly forecasts for demand planning purposes to better prepare for market fluctuations.

The Data-Driven Solution: 

With the objective of creating precise forecasts despite limited historical data, we leveraged retail audit data spanning the past 4 years. Our approach blended time-series econometric modeling with state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms.

The Insights: 

Our data-driven solutions yielded valuable insights that transformed our client’s strategic planning:

  • Category Forecasts for 3 Years: We successfully projected category volume trends for the upcoming 3 years. This comprehensive outlook provided our client with a roadmap for their product categories, enabling informed decision-making.
  • Seasonality Integration: By incorporating seasonality patterns into our models, we allowed our client to visualize and understand the seasonal fluctuations that influenced each of their product categories. This insight was critical in optimizing inventory management and marketing strategies.
  • Scenario Forecasting Tool: We developed a powerful simulation tool that empowered our client to forecast category volumes on a monthly basis for the next 3 years under various distribution and pricing scenarios. This tool gave them the agility to adapt to changing market conditions.

Impact and Ongoing Utilization: 

Our data-driven approach had a profound and lasting impact on our client’s operations:

  • Strategic Scenario Planning: The simulation tool we provided became a cornerstone of our client’s strategic planning process. It equipped them with the ability to anticipate sales trends on a monthly basis, aligning their operations with market dynamics and ensuring efficient resource allocation.
  • Validation Over Time: Over the course of nearly a year, we compared our forecasts to actual market conditions on a quarterly basis. We consistently achieved an impressive accuracy rate ranging from 85% to 95%. 
  • Ongoing Collaboration: Our client was highly satisfied with the accuracy and clarity of our forecasts. As a result, they have engaged us to repeat this exercise annually during their strategic planning period. This ongoing collaboration ensures that our client remains at the forefront of their industry, adapting to changing market dynamics and making data-driven decisions that drive success.


our data-driven forecasting solution enabled our FMCG client to enhance their strategic planning, optimize operations, and respond effectively to market fluctuations. By leveraging historical data, machine learning, and simulation tools, we empowered our client to confidently navigate the complex landscape of the FMCG industry and achieve their long-term business goals.