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Category: Forecasting

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Enhancing FMCG Strategic Planning with Data-Driven Forecasting

Client Background: 

Our client, a prominent Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) company operating across various product categories, sought to develop a comprehensive 3-year strategic business plan. They faced the challenge of accurately forecasting the volume of products in their diverse portfolio, with an emphasis on addressing high seasonality inherent to their offerings. Furthermore, they required monthly forecasts for demand planning purposes to better prepare for market fluctuations.

The Data-Driven Solution: 

With the objective of creating precise forecasts despite limited historical data, we leveraged retail audit data spanning the past 4 years. Our approach blended time-series econometric modeling with state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms.

The Insights: 

Our data-driven solutions yielded valuable insights that transformed our client’s strategic planning:

  • Category Forecasts for 3 Years: We successfully projected category volume trends for the upcoming 3 years. This comprehensive outlook provided our client with a roadmap for their product categories, enabling informed decision-making.
  • Seasonality Integration: By incorporating seasonality patterns into our models, we allowed our client to visualize and understand the seasonal fluctuations that influenced each of their product categories. This insight was critical in optimizing inventory management and marketing strategies.
  • Scenario Forecasting Tool: We developed a powerful simulation tool that empowered our client to forecast category volumes on a monthly basis for the next 3 years under various distribution and pricing scenarios. This tool gave them the agility to adapt to changing market conditions.

Impact and Ongoing Utilization: 

Our data-driven approach had a profound and lasting impact on our client’s operations:

  • Strategic Scenario Planning: The simulation tool we provided became a cornerstone of our client’s strategic planning process. It equipped them with the ability to anticipate sales trends on a monthly basis, aligning their operations with market dynamics and ensuring efficient resource allocation.
  • Validation Over Time: Over the course of nearly a year, we compared our forecasts to actual market conditions on a quarterly basis. We consistently achieved an impressive accuracy rate ranging from 85% to 95%. 
  • Ongoing Collaboration: Our client was highly satisfied with the accuracy and clarity of our forecasts. As a result, they have engaged us to repeat this exercise annually during their strategic planning period. This ongoing collaboration ensures that our client remains at the forefront of their industry, adapting to changing market dynamics and making data-driven decisions that drive success.


our data-driven forecasting solution enabled our FMCG client to enhance their strategic planning, optimize operations, and respond effectively to market fluctuations. By leveraging historical data, machine learning, and simulation tools, we empowered our client to confidently navigate the complex landscape of the FMCG industry and achieve their long-term business goals.

Forecasting Economic Uncertainty: Leveraging Data-Driven Insights for Future Success


In a rapidly changing economic landscape, businesses face the challenge of anticipating and adapting to uncertainty. This case study highlights a successful collaboration with a forward-thinking client and their journey from navigating economic uncertainty to forecasting future trends using data-driven insights.

The Challenge:

Understanding Economic Impact:  Our client confronted two critical questions:

  • How does economic vulnerability affect consumer purchasing power?
  • What changes in consumer spending habits occur when household incomes decline during economic challenges?

The Data-Driven Solution:

To address these questions, we embarked on a data-driven journey that incorporated the following elements:

  • Data Fusion: We merged internal company data and retail audit information with external economic and demographic indicators to create a comprehensive economic landscape.
  • Econometric Mastery: We utilized Generative Additive Modelling and Machine Learning algorithms to select the most suitable methods for generating robust results.

The Insights: Driving Future Success

Our efforts yielded invaluable insights for our client:

  • Economic Impact: We identified the economic and demographic factors directly influencing category volumes and our client’s market share, shedding light on the impact of economic conditions on purchasing power.
  • Price Elasticities: By analyzing price elasticities, we discerned how price changes affected our client’s and competitors’ products.
  • Untangling Complex Relationships: We unravelled intricate connections among various economic variables, illuminating their influence on category and brand volumes.
  • Scenario Forecasting Tool: We developed a powerful simulation tool allowing our client to input economic  variables, empowering them to forecast category and brand volumes accurately.

Impact and Ongoing Utilization

Our work had a lasting impact on our client’s operations:

  • Identifying Critical Factors: We pinpointed the internal and external factors with the most significant impact on category and brand volumes.
  • Strategic Scenario Planning: Our simulation tool became a cornerstone of our client’s strategic planning, enabling them to anticipate shifts in economic indicators and competitor actions.
  • Validation Over Time: Over nearly a year, we compared our forecasts to actual market conditions quarterly, consistently achieving an impressive accuracy rate of 85-95%.
  • Long-term Value: Today, our client continues to rely on our simulation tool for scenario planning, ensuring their agility and responsiveness in a dynamic economic landscape.


This case study demonstrates the transformative potential of data-driven decision-making in business strategy, evolving from navigating uncertainty to forecasting future trends. In a world where change is constant, businesses armed with data-driven insights not only survive but thrive. The journey from questions to insights to action exemplifies the power of data analytics in forecasting economic uncertainty and shaping a prosperous future.